(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
We’re basically down to two. Unless something catastrophic happens in the final 10 games, the Golden Knights will win the Pacific Division and take on either the Minnesota Wild or the St. Louis Blues.
St. Louis has charged back into the picture with a nine-game winning streak making up an incredible eight points in the last 10 games on the Wild. Minnesota still holds the edge due to their game in hand with the teams at an identical 87 points. With the Blues charge and Minnesota’s injuries, it really is anyone’s guess which team will be coming to T-Mobile Arena for the first round.
So, which one should Golden Knights fans be hoping for? Let’s dig into the numbers to find out.
Season Series
3-0-0 vs MIN (+8 GD)
2-0-1 vs STL (+2 GD)
Vegas won all three games against the Wild by scores of 3-2, 4-1, and the most recent 5-1, but the series with Minnesota has a massive asterisk on it. In each of the first two games both teams were playing the second of a back-to-back, then in the final game, the Wild were while the Golden Knights were not. Injuries played a major part as well, but the Wild have struggled more than most playoff teams without rest. Minnesota is 4-6-1 on the second of back-to-backs while they are 37-22-4 when they have at least one day. Nonetheless, the Golden Knights handled Minnesota every time and for most of all three games the Wild looked non-threatening in the offensive zone.
The games against the Blues were certainly more competitive this year than those against Minnesota. VGK beat St. Louis in the second game of the season 4-3 but fell behind early in that game and had to stave off a furious surge late to hang on. Then, the two teams played consecutive games against each other, and the road team won each. Vegas needed two 3rd period goals, both scored in the final 3:10 of the game to send it to OT but eventually lost in shootout. Mark Stone scored 19 seconds into the final game, which Vegas ultimately won 4-2. VGK Preference: Minnesota
Special Teams
Minnesota: 20.4% PP (21st) / 71.4% PK (31st)
St. Louis: 21.4% PP (19th) / 73.0% PK (29th)
To be a true threat to the Golden Knights, any opposing team will have to stop the #1 power play in the NHL. Both the Wild and Blues are terrible on the penalty kill, each ranking near the bottom of the league. The Blues had more success against the VGK PP than Minnesota did this year. Vegas scored two goals on six opportunities against the Blues while converting on four of seven vs the Wild. In addition, the Blues PK has been much better since the 4 Nations break killing at about 79%. Minnesota’s numbers have continued to plummet as the year has gone on.
On the flip side, neither team is all that potent on the power play either. Penalty kill may be VGK’s biggest weakness this season clocking in at 75.5% and 71% since 4 Nations. Vegas killed all four Wild power plays in the three games this season while allowing two goals on six chances to the Blues. VGK Preference: Minnesota
Goaltending
Filip Gustavsson – 29-17-4, .916 SV%, 2.51 GAA, 19.5 GSAx
Jordan Binnington – 25-21-4, .901 SV%, 2.70 GAA, 5.3 GSAx
Maybe a bit surprising, but these numbers are not close at all. Gustavsson has been the far better goalie this season and despite the team’s fall off recently his performance has remained steady. Gustavsson played in just one of the three games against the Golden Knights and allowed four goals.
Binnington’s numbers haven’t been nearly as strong, and in many ways, he’s barely even above average, but there’s a history of playing great in big games that is concerning for any playoff opponent. He was dominant in the 4 Nations final for Canada and denied Bruce Cassidy a Cup back in 2019. However, since his magical Cup run, he hasn’t been particularly good in the playoffs. He’s posted a 4-10-0 record, allowed 44 goals in 15 games, and has just a .904 save percentage. VGK Preference: St. Louis
On Paper Healthy Lineup
Minnesota
Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello
Boldy-Eriksson Ek-Johansson
Nyquist-Hartman-Hinostroza
Foligno-Gaudreau-Brazeau
Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Chisholm-Bogosian
St. Louis
Neighbours-Thomas-Bolduc
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Snuggerud-Dvorsky-Buchnevich
Toropchenko-Faksa-Joseph
Broberg-Parayko
Fowler-Faulk
Suter-Tucker
Both teams are extremely deep and have much better rosters than their records indicate. Minnesota has been without Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek for a while but both are expected to return for the playoffs. The trade deadline acquisitions of Gustav Nyquist, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Justin Brazeau have filled out their bottom six as well. When both Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon are in the lineup, the d-corps is fairly formidable too.
St. Louis looks like a completely different team since Dylan Holloway started scoring goals. The offer sheet acquisition from the Oilers has 10 goals and 22 points in the last 18 games and now has the Blues’ top six looking much more dangerous. Jimmy Snuggerud, a 1st round pick in 2022 was recently added to the lineup and the Hobey Baker finalist could be an x-factor in the playoffs. Defensively, Colton Parayko is the best player on either team’s blue line by a fairly wide margin, but the depth of the Blues’ D-pairs is a bit suspect. VGK Preference: St. Louis
Current Form (Record Since 4 Nations)
Minnesota: 8-9-1 (.472) 23rd in NHL
St. Louis: 15-2-2 (.842) 1st in NHL
There’s still time for this to change as the Wild have eight games left to play and the Blues have seven, but the two teams are heading in completely different directions. The Wild have been in somewhat of a free fall since their red-hot start. Minnesota got off to a 19-5-4 start to the season which had them atop the entire NHL on December 11th. They dropped a game 7-1 to the Oilers the next night and have been a miserable 22-23-1 since. They are about to embark on the New York road swing (at NJD, at NYR, at NYI) before coming home to face Dallas.
The Blues are the complete opposite. St. Louis fired its coach after a 9-12-1 start and were looking dead in the water on Thanksgiving. Jim Montgomery has turned it around though and the team seems to be getting better and better. The nine game winning streak is getting all the headlines currently but they were 8-3-3 in the 14 games before it which means they are 17-3-3 in the last 23. They’ve outscored their opponents by 34 in the last 23 games and have flipped their goal differential from a season-low of -20 to their current number of +17. Compare that to Minnesota’s -9 and it’s pretty clear which team is the better option for VGK in the first round. VGK Preference: Minnesota
